End of the line ?

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Andy D
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End of the line ?

Post by Andy D »

I have just read that the polo is to be discontinued but that was posted back in February. Is that fake news or fact :(
Last edited by Andy D on Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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OomStu_ZA
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Re: End of the line

Post by OomStu_ZA »

I also read an article recently that said VW are going all electric by 2030 (it was Golf R related) but can't see them dropping ICE in South Africa for many years to come. In the EU things may be different due to strict CO2 emissions.
Last edited by OomStu_ZA on Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
SRGTD
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Re: End of the line

Post by SRGTD »

It’s been suggested in various articles I’ve read this year, and with the deadlines set by many countries for the ban on sales of new ICE cars just a few years away (2030 for many countries; Norway is 2025), I dare say it’s more fact than fiction. Ford are stopping production of the Fiesta in June next year as it focuses on going all electric, and I dare say many other car manufacturers will follow suit by phasing out their ICE range of vehicles over the next few years.

Historically, VW’s model life cycle for a car has been around 8 years. The AW / BZ Polo was launched at the end of 2017 so would have been due for replacement around the end of 2025. If many of VW’s core markets are banning new ICE sales from 2030, then VW probably wouldn’t be able to recoup the development costs of an all new model in a reduced 4-5 year model lifecycle. Additionally, I dare say that any new model would need new, cleaner engines due to increasingly stringent emissions regulations, and that would require significant financial commitment by VW that would probably be unlikely to be recouped in a shorter payback period of a 4-5 years. If the future is EV’s, then financially from a car manufacturer’s perspective it makes sense to channel investment into EV’s.

The current Polo may get a further facelift in around three years time to tide it over until VW decide to put it to rest. I dare say the same may happen with other VW ICE models (e.g. the Golf) as core markets for those models get closer to their dates for banning ICE vehicles.
Andy D
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Re: End of the line

Post by Andy D »

SRGTD wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:15 pm Ford are stopping production of the Fiesta in June next year as it focuses on going all electric, and I dare say many other car manufacturers will follow suit by phasing out their ICE range of vehicles over the next few years.models get closer to their dates for banning ICE vehicles.
Ford are also dropping the Galaxy :o
lancslad1985
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by lancslad1985 »

BMW and a couple of other manufacturers have already approached the EU and asked for the ban to be pushed back as synthetic fuels are being looked at which would use co2 from the atmosphere and essentially mean current cars are carbon neutral after collection.

When you consider that an electric car is worse than a petrol for 40K miles if you’re on a green tariff or up to 80k miles if you’re not (according to some articles), plus they use very rare elements, electric is not the solution long term. Plus the UK uses mainly gas and oil power plants still.

I think the ban will be pushed back five or ten years yet as there isn’t the charger network and electric cars are vastly more expensive than ICE currently. There needs to be a big advancement in the next five years for electric to be a good replacement. Plus electricity is currently similar in price to petrol, so where’s the incentive for the masses?
Andy D
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by Andy D »

lancslad1985 wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:54 pm BMW and a couple of other manufacturers have already approached the EU and asked for the ban to be pushed back as synthetic fuels are being looked at which would use co2 from the atmosphere and essentially mean current cars are carbon neutral after collection.

When you consider that an electric car is worse than a petrol for 40K miles if you’re on a green tariff or up to 80k miles if you’re not (according to some articles), plus they use very rare elements, electric is not the solution long term. Plus the UK uses mainly gas and oil power plants still.

I think the ban will be pushed back five or ten years yet as there isn’t the charger network and electric cars are vastly more expensive than ICE currently. There needs to be a big advancement in the next five years for electric to be a good replacement. Plus electricity is currently similar in price to petrol, so where’s the incentive for the masses?
Sky News did a survey recently on the difference in fuel costs between Electric, Petrol and Diesel, their results were an average cost. They came up with fuel only costs of 15ppm for Electric, 16ppm for Petrol and surprisingly 19ppm for Diesel. So the gap is closing in. :)
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by Metman888 »

lancslad1985 wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:54 pm BMW and a couple of other manufacturers have already approached the EU and asked for the ban to be pushed back as synthetic fuels are being looked at which would use co2 from the atmosphere and essentially mean current cars are carbon neutral after collection.

When you consider that an electric car is worse than a petrol for 40K miles if you’re on a green tariff or up to 80k miles if you’re not (according to some articles), plus they use very rare elements, electric is not the solution long term. Plus the UK uses mainly gas and oil power plants still.

I think the ban will be pushed back five or ten years yet as there isn’t the charger network and electric cars are vastly more expensive than ICE currently. There needs to be a big advancement in the next five years for electric to be a good replacement. Plus electricity is currently similar in price to petrol, so where’s the incentive for the masses?

Theres virtually no oil fed power stations left but still plenty of gas yeah. The problem I've read about the manufacture of synthetic fuels is they require massive amounts of electricity so far from carbon neutral, infact worse in that respect than charging an electric car. One report I've read reckons you could charge 4 electric cars and use the same electricity as 1 tank of synthetic fuels. Hopefully things can improve but I just cant see synthetic fuels being made in sufficient volume for everyone.
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Re: End of the line

Post by CarbonChaos »

' Ford are also dropping the Galaxy :o '

Also gone is S-max , mondeo and Ka+
SRGTD
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Re: End of the line

Post by SRGTD »

CarbonChaos wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:21 am ' Ford are also dropping the Galaxy :o '

Also gone is S-max , mondeo and Ka+
A member on one of the other VAG forums had ordered a Focus and was subsequently told that Focus production had been halted. Whether that’s a temporary halt due to supply chain issues or permanent with Ford also pulling the plug on the Focus I don’t know.

Ford certainly seem to be going all out down the EV route.
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by CarbonChaos »

Renault have also discontinued the Megane RS range i believe , with 7 new EV's in the pipeline
johnpolo2
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by johnpolo2 »

I certainly wouldn't want any of the current VW EV offerings, bland looking models. The networks are just not in sufficient numbers for charging and hanging around for half an hour somewhere to charge up, dull.
SRGTD
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by SRGTD »

johnpolo2 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:03 pm I certainly wouldn't want any of the current VW EV offerings, bland looking models.
Agree - they’re the epitome of blandness, and the interiors look pretty low rent; very un-VW like when compared to some other current and previous generation VW’s. The ID EV’s have also been suffering from many of the software issues that the mk8 Golf has.

I had a waiting appointment while my car was serviced a couple of months ago. While I was helping myself to the complementary coffee, a quite elderly couple came into the dealership and told one of the service advisors that their ID.4 needed charging but wouldn’t accept charge (assume it was a software issue preventing the car from charging?). They were on holiday and a good few hundred miles from home, so not the most convenient position to be in.

My next car will probably be an EV. I don’t drive many miles these days (around 4,500 miles a year) and any local journeys that are around five / six miles or so, if I don’t have anything heavy to carry, then I’ll walk - better for me and for the planet. I don’t need an EV with a particularly long range and I’d envisage there’ll be a few new interesting models appearing in small car EV segment (Polo sized) during the next couple of years (e.g. Cupra’s UrbanRebel, the new Mini, the modern day electric version of the Renault 5). I won’t be getting a VW ID.2 though if the production vehicle looks anything like the renderings I’ve seen which are all pretty similar - IMHO it looks like the love child of a T-Cross and a ID.3 🤣, and I wouldn’t want anything that resembles an SUV.

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lancslad1985
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by lancslad1985 »

@SRGTD if I have to go electric I’m going for a Cupra or stumping for a polestar. My mate has just got his, a polestar two, and it’s vastly superior to the interior of an ID car I’ve been in. The ID range feel cheap and nasty.
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by johnpolo2 »

Had to Google what a Polestar was. :lol:
Yes I've seen it before.
MikeDO
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Re: End of the line ?

Post by MikeDO »

CarbonChaos wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:41 am Renault have also discontinued the Megane RS range i believe , with 7 new EV's in the pipeline
RenaultSport as a brand was officially replaced by Alpine a while back.
See: https://www.cityam.com/end-of-an-era-as ... its-doors/
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