UK-POLOS.NET - THE VW Polo Forum

This discussion topic title is ‘stolen’ from the title of the YouTube video at the link below; interesting video IMHO and worth a watch.

The EU 2030 Zero Emission Vehicle mandate requires vehicle manufacturers to produce year on year increasing percentage numbers of EV’s between now and 2035 when vehicle production will be required to be 100% EV (there are big fines if they miss the yearly EV production targets). However, unless current consumer attitudes change, battery technology improves (longer range, ultra fast changing capability, smaller lighter and cheaper batteries) and EV infrastructure improves, vehicle manufacturers will be building cars they’re likely to struggle to sell (current stratospheric levels of depreciation on EV’s is another deterrent for consumers).

Stocks of unsold vehicles = no sales revenue for the motor manufacturers, giving them some serious financial challenges and the video presenter mentions that those financial challenges could mean one or more of the large established motor manufacturers either going bust or being taken over in the next few years (VW and Ford get mentioned).

Happy viewing! Would be interested in forum members views / comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IqJMC2bwW4

I also watched the video recently and while EV's may work in the likes of the UK/EU/US/etc, it will not work in Africa for many many many years to come. In South Africa (as an example) we currently have 350 public charging stations (as of Nov 2023) across the country. The biggest concerns buying an EV on this side of the world is cost, charging time (safety concerns in public spaces), as well as range anxiety. Hybrid (albeit also expensive in Rand terms) is the middle ground and seen a massive uptake on the available models here.

Agree - in some countries BEV ownership isn’t currently a particularly viable option for the vast majority of motorists for a number of reasons.

I think the convenience of being able to pull onto a filling station forecourt, refuelling, paying and driving away - all in the space of around five minutes, and not having to worry about being unable to find another filling station when needing to refuel again is something we all take for granted with an ICE car. Anything less convenient than that with a BEV will be viewed by many as an unacceptable compromise, especially when range anxiety is also factored in.

I dare say that battery technology will continue to evolve over the next few years, which is something that would stop me buying an electric car at present and ending up with obsolete technology, not to mention the horrendous depreciation that BEV owners in the UK seem to have experienced in the last couple of years. My next car is likely to be a self charging hybrid of some sort which would work for me as an interim step in the transition from ICE to BEV ownership.

In the meantime, I’m doing my bit to manage the environmental impacts of owning an ICE GTI and have been making a conscious effort to do so since around the start of the pandemic. These days I only use my car when necessary and I don’t use it on short journeys if where I need to go is a walkable distance and I don’t need to use my car’s luggage carrying capacity. It’s not only kinder to the environment - I’ve roughly halved my annual mileage over the last 4-5 years which will have had a positive impact on my car’s CO2 emissions - the extra exercise through walking is also beneficial to my health .

I can't say the same for my car as it is a work tool and already clocked 111000KM's in 4 years (±70000 Miles?). Here everyone drives everywhere because of safety factors mainly. As I previously stated public charging stations are a no go at night, let alone day time. Also, and this is very tongue in cheek, most content creators who I follow and that have driven EV's for review etc, usually quote charging times for different EV's while munching some item of food. If I had to eat every time the car needed a recharge I'd be a right porker

An EV run about would be an option for short trips to the shops but we have our shopping deilvered to our home. The Pandemic was awful but out of it came some positives like wider delivery options to ones home.

Evs will be gone within 2 years , total scam !!

curlyrambo wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2024 5:08 pm Evs will be gone within 2 years , total scam !!

With the significant investment by the majority of vehicle manufacturers into BEV’s, and the EU 2030 Zero Emission Vehicle mandate being based solely around zero tailpipe emissions vehicles, I’m not sure BEV’s will be gone within two years. However, putting all your eggs into one basket is a bad idea IMHO - it’s rather shortsighted of the legislators to not also give consideration to developing other ‘clean’ alternative' fuels that could be used in ICE vehicles, as BEV’s won’t be best solution in all situations.

Interesting times ahead………

Interesting video, thanks for sharing.

The only way that I would consider a BEV is if it was a company car, even more so if I got subsidised charging at my place of work. Not applicable now that I'm retired though.

But no way would I consider one as a personal purchase. Anything half decent is way to much money and the depreciation is glacial! Besides all the potential other pitfalls (EG. VERY high insurance costs).

Though I have been reasonably impressed with the couple of self charging hybrids that I've driven. I've had a 2l Corolla as a loan car when mine has been in for a service and was pleasantly surprised at how well the tech hung together.
And I shall be interested to hear from the guy on the forum that's getting an MG3.

Can't help but think that the whole electric car thing is being way to rushed. All the eggs in the same basket syndrome!

MikeDO wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2024 10:36 pm Interesting video, thanks for sharing.

The only way that I would consider a BEV is if it was a company car, even more so if I got subsidised charging at my place of work. Not applicable now that I'm retired though.

But no way would I consider one as a personal purchase. Anything half decent is way to much money and the depreciation is glacial! Besides all the potential other pitfalls (EG. VERY high insurance costs).

Though I have been reasonably impressed with the couple of self charging hybrids that I've driven. I've had a 2l Corolla as a loan car when mine has been in for a service and was pleasantly surprised at how well the tech hung together.
And I shall be interested to hear from the guy on the forum that's getting an MG3.

Can't help but think that the whole electric car thing is being way to rushed. All the eggs in the same basket syndrome!

Agree.

I’m not anti-EV, and measures - not just in relation to transport - certainly need to be taken to manage the effects of human-induced climate change on the planet (and before anyone asks, no, I’m not one of Greta Thunberg’s followers! ). However, placing pretty much total reliance on a single solution for future transport needs doesn’t seem to be the smartest move IMHO.

I predict EVs will die. They use a lot of rare earth minerals and unless you’re on a green energy tariff studies have shown you’d have to do 90k miles in an EV before it’s less CO2 than a petrol once you factor in building it.

Synthetic fuels are the way forward and a lot of investment is going into these as it uses standard petrol stations and ICE vehicles. It uses CO2 from the environment to create fuel, so it’s aiming for net zero emissions from the vehicle. Mercedes have also recently reopened diesel research according to one of my sources in the industry (I work for one of the fuel additive companies). This would be the way forward over EV false economy.

lancslad1985 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 8:27 pm I predict EVs will die. They use a lot of rare earth minerals and unless you’re on a green energy tariff studies have shown you’d have to do 90k miles in an EV before it’s less CO2 than a petrol once you factor in building it.

Synthetic fuels are the way forward and a lot of investment is going into these as it uses standard petrol stations and ICE vehicles. It uses CO2 from the environment to create fuel, so it’s aiming for net zero emissions from the vehicle. Mercedes have also recently reopened diesel research according to one of my sources in the industry (I work for one of the fuel additive companies). This would be the way forward over EV false economy.

Synthetic fuels is a very interesting one and as you’ve said, the existing infrastructure could be used and use of such fuels in ICE vehicles could make a worthwhile contribution towards achieving net zero, provided production of these fuels uses ‘clean’ energy. However, the big questions for me are those of scalability and cost; could synthetic fuels be produced in sufficient quantity and at an affordable price to satisfy consumer demand? I’ve read that synthetic fuels are also quite ‘energy hungry’ to produce which would presumably be reflected in higher (than petrol) retail prices charged to consumers. I could see that these fuels might well become the norm in certain transportation sectors such as aviation, road haulage and marine vessels though.

A couple of interesting articles at the links below; the first on synthetic fuels and the second on the demand for rare earth materials needed for EV battery production. The second article also touches on future battery technology and the move to smaller solid state batteries with higher energy density, greater range, shorter charging times and cheaper to produce.

Interesting times ahead…………

https://www.evo.co.uk/fuels/202460/synt ... ral-petrol

https://www.fleetalliance.co.uk/will-th ... power-evs/

Interesting video mate! I thought you were going to post about the 'The MacMaster' for a second there banging on about his electric Porsche!

I have been thinking a lot lately about moving on from the Polo GTI, but the more I read about EVs, the less convinced I am. One thing you mentioned was the depreciation value, it's staggering on EVs.

Did have a shock the other day when my partner went looking for a new car as she recently passed her test. £16,000 for a bog standard Kia Picanto! Prices have gone crazy, my GTI+ was £250 a month with a £2k deposit back in 2019, she'll be paying £230 a month for a Picanto!

S_94 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:10 pm Interesting video mate! I thought you were going to post about the 'The MacMaster' for a second there banging on about his electric Porsche!

I have been thinking a lot lately about moving on from the Polo GTI, but the more I read about EVs, the less convinced I am. One thing you mentioned was the depreciation value, it's staggering on EVs.

Did have a shock the other day when my partner went looking for a new car as she recently passed her test. £16,000 for a bog standard Kia Picanto! Prices have gone crazy, my GTI+ was £250 a month with a £2k deposit back in 2019, she'll be paying £230 a month for a Picanto!

I agree with you on EV’s - a couple of years ago I was seriously considering an EV for my next car. However, I’ve decided against it for the foreseeable future - depreciation and cost of insurance on EV’s being two of the main reasons. If I do decide to change my GTI+ in the next 12 months or so, I’ll probably be going for a full (self charging) hybrid of some sort and I’ll review the EV situation when the time comes to change that (hybrid) car - probably after 3-4 years of ownership. Battery technology will no doubt have moved on by then, there’ll be a wider choice of BEV’s and there may also be other viable alternatives to a BEV to consider.

I agree on the new car prices - they are crazy . You didn’t fancy putting your partner on your insurance then so she could drive your GTI+………...

SRGTD wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:10 pm

S_94 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:10 pm Interesting video mate! I thought you were going to post about the 'The MacMaster' for a second there banging on about his electric Porsche!

I have been thinking a lot lately about moving on from the Polo GTI, but the more I read about EVs, the less convinced I am. One thing you mentioned was the depreciation value, it's staggering on EVs.

Did have a shock the other day when my partner went looking for a new car as she recently passed her test. £16,000 for a bog standard Kia Picanto! Prices have gone crazy, my GTI+ was £250 a month with a £2k deposit back in 2019, she'll be paying £230 a month for a Picanto!

I agree with you on EV’s - a couple of years ago I was seriously considering an EV for my next car. However, I’ve decided against it for the foreseeable future - depreciation and cost of insurance on EV’s being two of the main reasons. If I do decide to change my GTI+ in the next 12 months or so, I’ll probably be going for a full (self charging) hybrid of some sort and I’ll review the EV situation when the time comes to change that (hybrid) car - probably after 3-4 years of ownership. Battery technology will no doubt have moved on by then, there’ll be a wider choice of BEV’s and there may also be other viable alternatives to a BEV to consider.

I agree on the new car prices - they are crazy . You didn’t fancy putting your partner on your insurance then so she could drive your GTI+………...

Good thinking, no harm in waiting now to see how the technology changes and I've heard good things about Hybrids. Shame as I was very tempted by the Cupra Raval (UrbanRevel)!

The offer was there mate, to quote her 'I don't like driving it, it's too powerful'.

I can imagine the insurance might have been a bit hefty too, still looking like £400-600 for a 1 litre automatic Picanto.